Christy O'Connor: Close encounters of the championship kind

The expected points total for that Armagh-Galway game was around 30-31, which basically translated into a predicted final score of 0-16 to 0-15, or 0-15 to 0-15, at the end of normal time.

Most of that analysis was based off the patterns between Armagh and Galway. The final score of their round robin meeting the previous month was 1-12 to 0-15. 

When Armagh edged their round robin game by one point in 2023, they notched 0-16, while Galway managed 1-12. The All-Ireland final was expected to be either a draw after full-time or a one point win. And that’s exactly how it panned out.

Given how little was between the teams, a goal was always going to break open that final, with Aaron McKay’s green flag ultimately proving to be the difference. The final score, 1-11 to 0-13, was marginally off the expected points total, but it wouldn’t have been if Galway hadn’t been so profligate.

The new rules have changed predictive scoring patterns and trends but Saturday’s meeting was another stress test to see if both Armagh and Galway are still as close as they have been - or if Armagh had moved ahead of the Connacht side.

The case study was possibly compromised when Armagh were already qualified and didn’t have to win. Galway desperately had to get something out of the match but with the Connacht side having been such an irritant for Kieran McGeeney’s team over the last few years, Armagh also had the opportunity to wash Galway out of their hair - and out of the championship.

Early on, it looked as if they would when leading by 0-15 to 0-7 at half-time. But Galway refused to get cut adrift before Shane Walsh landed the winning score with the last kick.

With Armagh and Galway, it just can’t be any other way other than a draw or a one-point win.

Dublin get the job done and move on

After having failed to win a game all year, Derry’s defeat to Dublin in Newry provided another example of a side that just can’t break that trend of losing tight games. Derry were heroic. They did have a couple of late goal chances from Brendan Rogers and Lachlan Murray but the deficit in attacking quality and tactical strategy on their own kickout ultimately saw them come up short again.

The kickout battle encapsulated the difference between the teams. Dublin only lost one of their own restarts, while Derry lost eight of their own kickouts. 

Stephen Cluxton gave a masterclass in his kickout execution, with Dublin sourcing 0-8 from his restarts, while all but one of Derry’s kickouts went long and Dublin’s middle eight were all over every one of those restarts, consistently hoovering up breaks, tearing forward and driving Derry back. Dublin also mined 0-4 of the Derry kickout.

Dublin’s scoring burst of an unanswered 0-5 towards the end of the third quarter was enough of a buffer to see them home but there was much more control and purpose about the Dubs in the second half. The tackling and intensity from both sides was ferocious but Dublin only turned over the ball four times in the second half when the ball was like a bar of soap and Derry were ravenously trying to hunt down the Dublin ball carriers.

This was also a statement performance from some of Dublin’s younger brigade. Peadar Ó Cofaigh Byrne was outstanding, winning six kickouts and being a constant nuisance on the Derry restart. Ó Cofaigh Byrne also became more involved in the Dublin attacks as his confidence clearly grew as the match progressed.

His midfield partner Killian McGinnis also had a fine game, kicking 0-3 from play, while Lee Gannon – who was making his first start in two years – had a huge impact on the game, chipping with 0-2 from play.

Dublin always look more comfortable in themselves too with Con O’Callaghan on board. After missing the Armagh game, O’Callaghan was excellent; from 17 possessions, he kicked 0-5 from play, was fouled for a converted free.

O’Callaghan got Dublin’s last score, which was only their second score of the last quarter. Still, the Dubs restricted Derry to just 0-3 across the same period. Job done. Move on.

Is it time to remove the McDonagh runners-up from championship?

Just before the throw-in of Saturday’s All-Ireland preliminary SHC quarter-final, Oisin Langan was setting the scene in his GAA+ commentary by outlining the mammoth task ahead of Laois. His co-commentator, Seamus Hickey, fully agreed but he did add: “The history that Laois have has to give them some bit of confidence in that they’ve been here and done it before. Here’s hoping.” 

Saturday was a million miles from when Laois famously scalped Dublin in the 2019 All-Ireland preliminary quarter-final. It was a day of days for Laois hurling that so many generations of Laois people had never had that opportunity before to experience. It was Laois’ first knockout championship win since 1989. 

It was also a turning point in how the Liam MacCarthy teams prepared for the Joe McDonagh finalists, especially the winners. In the six prelim quarter-finals played since, the average winning margin for the Liam MacCarthy teams is 15.8 points. However, there has been a difference between how the Joe McDonagh winners have fared compared to the runners up, where the average losing margin is 0-10 (winners) and 21.6 (runners up).

Although Kildare were beaten by Dublin on Saturday by 21 points, Tipperary’s 23-point win against Laois has to be a turning point now in the future direction of the All-Ireland preliminary quarter-finals – especially for the Joe McDonagh Cup runners-up.

The Joe McDonagh champions are fully entitled to a prelim quarter-final, especially when will be facing opposition of that calibre in next year’s championship. The hammering from Dublin will serve as a reminder of Kildare just how much ground they have to make up now ahead of next April.

Kildare will learn from that experience, whereas Laois didn’t want to be there on Saturday, just as almost every other Joe McDonagh runner-up hasn’t wanted that stage in the aftermath of losing a final.

Every Tier 2 team should be delighted to get as much exposure as possible against a Liam MacCarthy team. It also offers an outstanding young goalkeeper like Cathal Dunne the stage and platform to test himself against players at this level.

Still, the timing and setting is so wrong for the Joe McDonagh runners-up that it’s time now for only the Joe McDonagh winners to play one of the third placed provincial teams at this stage of the competition, alternating between Munster and Leinster every year.

That will mean that one of the third-placed teams will go straight into a quarter-final after a long layoff since the provincial round robin. On the otherhand, there is little benefit in hammering a team that doesn’t want to be there.