Éamonn Fitzmaurice: Ranking the last eight All-Ireland SFC contenders
David Clifford of Kerry in action against Niall Carolan of Cavan. Pic: Brendan Moran/Sportsfile
And then there were eight. Before the All-Ireland quarter finals is generally a good time to draw breath and rank the contenders. Usually, undeniable patterns have started to emerge, and a pecking order will have been established. That is not to say it always plays out that way but we have some sense of where we are going.
Not this season. Every county still standing has lost at least once. Armagh, Tyrone and Dublin have lost twice. Teams have come into and fallen out of form on a remarkably regular basis. There have been wild disparities in performances from one week to the next. Whether studying the form objectively or subjectively, it is uniquely challenging to rank the teams. Previous reliables in helping to ascertain where a team is at, such as preceding results, injuries and player availability, star player form, previous experience of the ultimate success, the journey travelled so far, bookies' odds, and gut instinct are not as informative this season.
Therefore, rather than ranking the teams from one to eight I have placed them in three broader categories. Tier one is for the teams that look ready now. They are not searching for form or looking out the door for returning players, they just need to turn up and perform and it will take a good team to beat them. It is a list of one, the All-Ireland champions Armagh.
Tier two teams are the counties that can win Sam Maguire at the end of July but still have questions that need answering, some more than others. This grouping contains the remaining Division 1 teams from this year's league.
Tier three teams are counties that are going really well, but it will be a reach for them to win the whole thing. They may sink another county but it is unlikely they have it in them to beat three of the teams ranked above them. The two Division 2 sides occupy this space, Monaghan and Meath. Both have been massively impressive in recent weeks but it would almost be unprecedented for them to win the All-Ireland from here. Almost.
Their consistency of performance and squad depth is what separates the All-Ireland champions from the rest at the moment. They have lost twice, but unlike most of the other remaining counties there hasn’t been wild oscillation in their performance levels.
Additionally, they are continuously evolving their game. For example, in recent games they have started to use the big switch in established attacks, when the opposition defence are set. I have been surprised that we haven’t seen more of this before now, in general. It is especially effective against a zonal defensive system, which of course Armagh favour, so they have opportunities to practice against it in training.
They got two great scores against Galway doing exactly this. Their first score of the game came when Rian O’Neill switched the play with an accurate 35-yard kick pass to the onrushing Ethan Rafferty, who in turn converted a long-range outside of the boot shot for a two-pointer. Similarly, later in the first half Tiernan Kelly played a 50-yard switch kick for Darragh McMullan’s two-pointer. That big switch makes it hard for zonal defences to shift in time to block any would-be shots.
The biggest challenge for Armagh may be mental as they get closer to retaining Sam. There is fatigue to consider. And the closer that dream is becoming a reality a tightness about achieving something monumental can set in.
At the start of the season if you asked the Kerry players who they wanted to play in the latter stages of championship you would only have got one answer. Armagh. In the league game in Tralee in March they played with a residual anger that was hanging around since last July. They played with similar intent in the first half against Cavan last Saturday. They will need bucketloads of it next weekend. For parts of this season, particularly recently, it looks like Kerry have been fast-forwarding their season to get to this point. They have injuries and are lacking a collective spark right now. However, the opposition is right and should fire them next weekend and any team with David Clifford in their ranks always has a chance.
Dublin’s defeat of Cork on Saturday evening was their time putting victories back to back since February, underlining how unsettled their season has been. Significantly, they managed it without Con O’Callaghan guaranteeing his availability for the coming game. Peadar Ó Cogaigh Byrne has settled into his midfield ball-winning role and has now developed a significant relationship with Stephen Cluxton on restarts. They are getting a huge amount of shots off in every game.
Dessie Farrell is getting other players back at the right time. They haven’t the squad of yore but I wouldn’t bet against them. They can be quite passive defensively at times as they sit in, possibly to protect a vulnerable full-back line. We saw them at their best in Salthill a few weeks ago when they pressed Galway everywhere. They also troubled Derry in Newry with a similar approach.
To win everything they may need to bring the same approach from here on in. Croke Park could be the issue for them as it is harder to press with that intensity on Jones Road. For so long the pitch that suited them best may no longer be the case. How ironic would that be?
Galway have diced with death for the last month, but they are the great survivors and are still standing. To their great credit. They are the definition of battle-hardened. At one stage yesterday it looked as if Pádraic Joyce was about to bring Connor Gleeson on as a sub, so worried was he about their restarts.
They have plenty of players playing well. Rob Finnerty and Matthew Thompson are playing with freedom and accuracy up front. Shane Walsh has rediscovered his mojo, Cillain McDaid is back in form but Paul Conroy and Matthew Tierney still need to up it. They are creating a huge amount of chances, including goal opportunities. They are scoring two-pointers. They have a strong squad and are getting an impact off the bench.
Tomo Culhane, Peter Cooke and Daniel O’Flaherty all did well for them yesterday. However they look open at the back and will need to sort that to take the final step for this group.
Tyrone have been close to having a great season. They were relegated on seven points and should have had a few more. They were in a great position against Armagh late in the Ulster semi-final, but lost. They beat Donegal in Ballybofey. The only real recent blip was their performance against Mayo in Healy Park where they were flat.
Understandably, as he is coming off a long club campaign, Darragh Canavan has only played in fits and starts so far but if he catches fire he takes his team to another level. Getting the best out of him is one of the conundrums that Malachy O’Rourke will have been pondering over the last fortnight.If they were more direct it would be a good starting point in creating the conditions for him to flourish.
It is the first time in this championship format that they have got to Croke Park and have had the weekend off before the quarter-final. A team that can thrive in HQ will be looking to make that count.
Donegal ruthlessly disposed of Louth in Ballybofey yesterday. However, for the first two-thirds of the game they were lethargic and inaccurate. After Ciarán Thompson’s goal they went into overdrive and finished it off ruthlessly. They have had a tough route to this point and more so than anyone else could have done with the weekend off.
I think that was what fed into Jim McGuinness’ rattiness last weekend. He understands better than anyone that they aren’t brimming with energy as they approach Croke Park, which their game requires. When they won the All-Ireland in 2012 they had two- and three-week breaks between the games to recover and go hard again. Hence, each performance was more energetic than the last as they raced to glory.
Croke Park will either bring the best out of them, or it will take it out of them and finish their season prematurely.
I have seen a nice bit of Monaghan this season and have been really impressed. They had an incredible shootout with Down in the last game that highlighted the best and worst of what they are about. They are ideally suited to the new game. They score freely but can concede heavily too. They have outside shooters (they are averaging five two-pointers per game), strike runners from deep in Conor McCarthy and Ryan McAnespie, they have excellent one-on-one forwards in Micheál Bannigan and Stephen O’Hanlon, and they have aggressive and ball-playing defenders in Ryan O’Toole, Kieran Duffy and Dessie Ward.
In Rory Beggan, they have a two-point free machine who punishes any indiscretions from halfway in. In short they have the tools, but the question remains whether or not they can beat three big guns in four weeks.
Meath have beaten Kerry and Dublin already in this year's championship. Historically that means a winter of parading Sam Maguire in your county. They too have taken very well to the new game, and are clearly well-coached. They have big men around the middle and are excellent on breaks. They have a host of two-point shooters, averaging almost four a game. They have pace and energy throughout the team. They are young and hungry and with each passing win they are growing in confidence.
Any upcoming opposition is forewarned about their potential now though, and in James Conlan, Ronan Jones, Jack Flynn and Matthew Costelloe they have hugely important players in the sick bay. They have made massive progress this year. To win the All-Ireland from here would be improbable.
